Voters appear to have mostly yawned at Roh's last-minute push and remain focused on the domestic economy, which many feel has been dragged down by the liberals' mismanagement.
But even if the conservatives regain power, the path toward reconciliation has already been set by a decade of liberal rule in the South.
The U.S. has also reversed its hardline policy of refusing to grant concessions and is now doling out incentives even before North Korea hands over its nuclear weapons. The switch has coaxed Pyongyang to begin decommissioning its main atomic reactor under the watch of American experts.
Washington's change of heart has allowed the South and the U.S. to largely set aside past disagreements on how to deal with the North.
Still, relations between Seoul and Washington have not been smooth, not least because of the poor chemistry between Roh and Bush, displayed most vividly in a joint public appearance in September. Roh repeatedly pressed the U.S. president to back a declaration to end the Korean War. Instead, Bush simply reaffirmed his stance that the North must totally disarm before it can have normal relations with the U.S.
Lee has said improved ties with the U.S. would be a priority.
"The hope in Washington will be that (South Korea) coordinates its policies with the North with ours, rather than acting independently, which runs the risk of undercutting our policy," said Robert Gallucci, a former U.S. diplomat who signed a 1994 disarmament deal with North Korea and is now dean of Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.
North Korea appears resigned to a Lee victory.
Earlier in the campaign, its state-run Korean Central News Agency called Lee "stupid and foolish," but it has not mentioned his name for more than a month.
Instead, the North's invective turned to another conservative candidate, Lee Hoi-chang, who is a distant second or third in opinion polls. He has called for a tougher line on Pyongyang to force it to dismantle its nuclear weapons.
A North Korean institute minced no words, according to the news agency, labeling Lee Hoi-chang "a fascist man-killer, separatist and confrontational maniac, kingpin of irregularities and corruption and human scum."
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Burt Herman is chief of bureau in Korea for The Associated Press.